Predicting current and future habitat refuges for conservation of wild goat (Capra aegagrus Erxleben 1777) under climate change in Iraq

Abstract

The Wild goat (Capra aegagrus) has had less attention and study than many other mammals, especially in Iraq. We collected comprehensive data about this species in Iraq, a total of 36 records, in order to build species distribution models using Maximum Entropy and seven environmental variables. The results confirm that suitable habitat is limited to the northeastern part of Iraq, especially the Zagros mountains of Kurdistan region/Iraq. Elevation most influenced the predicted distribution. Habitat suitability under different future climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2070) is stable but expands compared with the current period. Areas of marginally and highly suitable decrease, while suitable habitat increases compared to the present. Habitat suitability inside existing Protected Areas was significantly higher than outside. Applying IUCN Red List criteria at the national scale, the species was classified as Endangered. The main short-term threat is, against which urgent action is needed to avoid future declines. We conclude that climate change is not likely to be a long-term threat to the Wild goat in Iraq, but urgent action to stop poaching is needed to sustain many Iraqi mammals, especially the Wild goat. Our applied approach can help understand and conserve other critical species in Iraq.