Predicting Current and Future Geographical Distribution of Araucaria in Brazil for Fundamental Niche Modeling

Abstract

Geographic distribution forecast of Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze. was studied. This is a native species that occurs more frequently in the southern region of Brazil and, to a lesser extent, in the southeasthern region. The study was based on points of occurrence that were collected over several years by Embrapa Forests and complemented by points obtained from herbaria, banks and several educational institutions, including the biological collections database Reference Center Environmental Information (CRIA), which gathers information from various herbaria in Brazil. We used mathematical models occurrence prediction, including: Bioclim, and Niche Mosaic. The models were selected for best representing the regions of occurrence. In addition to the points of occurrence, to compose the spatial modeling environmental data, climate, soil, and topography were needed. In the study we used only climate data such as the average minimum air temperature, average maximum air temperature, accumulated rainfall, and average relative humidity. We didn't use soil data because there was not a detailed survey available throughout the area of occurrence of the species. We conclude that the naturally occurring region of Araucaria was well represented using only the climate data and two models that well represented the occurrence of regions. With climate change, there is a strong tendency to reduce the potential area of Araucaria in Brazil, especially in regions at lower latitudes and altitudes.