Abstract
Geographic distribution forecast of Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze. was studied. This is a native species that occurs more frequently in the southern region of Brazil and, to a lesser extent, in the southeasthern region. The study was based on points of occurrence that were collected over several years by Embrapa Forests and complemented by points obtained from herbaria, banks and several educational institutions, including the biological collections database Reference Center Environmental Information (CRIA), which gathers information from various herbaria in Brazil. We used mathematical models occurrence prediction, including: Bioclim, and Niche Mosaic. The models were selected for best representing the regions of occurrence. In addition to the points of occurrence, to compose the spatial modeling environmental data, climate, soil, and topography were needed. In the study we used only climate data such as the average minimum air temperature, average maximum air temperature, accumulated rainfall, and average relative humidity. We didn't use soil data because there was not a detailed survey available throughout the area of occurrence of the species. We conclude that the naturally occurring region of Araucaria was well represented using only the climate data and two models that well represented the occurrence of regions. With climate change, there is a strong tendency to reduce the potential area of Araucaria in Brazil, especially in regions at lower latitudes and altitudes.
Highlights
Araucaria is the most representative native tree species of the coldest regions in Brazil
The aim of this study was to investigate the possibility of mapping the current areas of occurrence of Araucaria in Brazil by using only climatic variables; and to define priority areas for environmental preservation; considering climate change, targeting the genetic material guard for future, taking into account the use of araucaria for reforestation and commercial plantations
This study was conducted in the regions of occurrence of Araucaria (Araucaria angustifolia)
Summary
Araucaria is the most representative native tree species of the coldest regions in Brazil It is present in the south and southeast regions of the country. Is a native species of high socio economic importance in Brazil It is found more often in the southern region at altitudes above 500 meters and less frequently in the southeastern region which is present at higher altitudes than the south. This is a very significant area where the climate is temperate, according to Köppen classification (Wrege et al, 2011) [35] and A. angustifolia is widely dispersed in this region
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