Predicting current and future climate suitability for arecanut (Areca catechu L.) in India using ensemble model

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Climate change has the potential to influence plant development, physiology, and distribution. Arecanut (Areca catechu L.), with its long life span of 60–70 years, thrives in a tropical habitat remains exposed to various abiotic and biotic factors. It is pertinent to comprehend the adaptation strategies of this crop towards climate change over time. The Biomod2 ensemble platform for species distribution modeling was utilized to predict the potential impact of climate change on the adaptability of the crop. The extracted study region of India was used for prediction, and the final run of 6 models ensemble includes 894 occurrence points and 9 climate variables with 80%–20% of training and validation sets. The model's outputs had area under curve (AUC) values of 0.943 and true skills statistics (TSS) of 0.741, which are regarded as accurate. The research area was categorized into five groups: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. The examination involved assessing the shift in each category from the present to two prospective scenarios (shared socio-economic pathways; SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5) projected for the 2050s and 2070s. A shift in the climate suitability area from ‘very high’ and ‘high’ categories to ‘moderate’ or ‘very low’ categories was observed suggesting the need for adaptive strategies to sustain the current yield levels. Amongst the regions, Karnataka state, which at present has more than 50% area under cultivation, is highly vulnerable and more area is coming under ‘very low’ and ‘low’ categories from eastern side. Meanwhile, in north eastern part of the country a shift in high suitable region from northwest to southwest is observed. Overall, the model prediction suggests that some parts of west and south interior regions of the country warrant immediate consideration in order to adapt to future climate change, whereas some part of north east can be considered for future cultivation.