Predicting Criminal Recidivism in Adult Male Offenders

Abstract

In an attempt to bridge the gap between research and practice in the domain of criminal risk assessment, this study compared the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments attained via an exhaustive research protocol to that achieved by the proxy ratings generated by parole officers. After an initial prerelease assessment, 127 male offenders under community supervision in Ontario, Canada, were assessed by parole officers and researchers at three different intervals (i.e., 1, 3, and 6 months postrelease). Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed moderate to high levels of predictive accuracy in both research-based and parole officer ratings (area under the curve [AUC] = .79 and .76, respectively). The strongest prediction model combined the research-based time-dependent dynamic factors with static items (AUC = .86), thus offering provisional support for the inclusion of prospectively rated dynamic factors in risk assessment protocols.