Predicting coronary heart disease in Chinese diabetics using machine learning

Abstract

Diabetes, a common chronic disease worldwide, can induce vascular complications, such as coronary heart disease (CHD), which is also one of the main causes of human death. It is of great significance to study the factors of diabetic patients complicated with CHD for understanding the occurrence of diabetes/CHD comorbidity. In this study, by analyzing the risk of CHD in more than 300,000 diabetes patients in southwest China, an artificial intelligence (AI) model was proposed to predict the risk of diabetes/CHD comorbidity. Firstly, we statistically analyzed the distribution of four types of features (basic demographic information, laboratory indicators, medical examination, and questionnaire) in comorbidities, and evaluated the predictive performance of three traditional machine learning methods (eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Logistic regression). In addition, we have identified nine important features, including age, WHtR, BMI, stroke, smoking, chronic lung disease, drinking and MSP. Finally, the model produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.701 on the test samples. These findings can provide personalized guidance for early CHD warning for diabetic populations.