Predicting Consumption Expenditure for the Analysis of Health Care Financing Equity in Low Income Countries: a Comparison of Approaches

Abstract

The analysis of equity in the distribution of health care payments requires nationally representative income and expenditure surveys, containing information on health care payments and ability to pay. Such national household surveys in developing countries collect limited information on out-of-pocket payments for health care but comprehensive information on household consumption expenditure (a proxy of income). There are also limited nationally representative health surveys to conduct equity analyses requiring an administration of small health-specific surveys to collect detailed information on health care payments. However, collecting household expenditure is expensive and time . This study compares quantile regression to Ordinary Least Square in predicting consumption expenditure. Split sample method and cross validation tests are used to evaluate the prediction methodology. Unlike OLS, the quantile model does not distort the values of, the Gini index, the concentration index and the Kakwani index and is the preferred method for predicting consumption expenditure for financing incidence analysis.