Predicting complications of percutaneous coronary intervention using a novel support vector method

Abstract

To explore the feasibility of a novel approach using an augmented one-class learning algorithm to model in-laboratory complications of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Data from the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium (BMC2) multicenter registry for the years 2007 and 2008 (n=41 016) were used to train models to predict 13 different in-laboratory PCI complications using a novel one-plus-class support vector machine (OP-SVM) algorithm. The performance of these models in terms of discrimination and calibration was compared to the performance of models trained using the following classification algorithms on BMC2 data from 2009 (n=20 289): logistic regression (LR), one-class support vector machine classification (OC-SVM), and two-class support vector machine classification (TC-SVM). For the OP-SVM and TC-SVM approaches, variants of the algorithms with cost-sensitive weighting were also considered. The OP-SVM algorithm and its cost-sensitive variant achieved the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the majority of the PCI complications studied (eight cases). Similar improvements were observed for the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) value (seven cases) and the mean cross-entropy error (eight cases). The OP-SVM algorithm based on an augmented one-class learning problem improved discrimination and calibration across different PCI complications relative to LR and traditional support vector machine classification. Such an approach may have value in a broader range of clinical domains.