Predicting climate change impact on hospitalizations of cardiovascular patients in Tabriz

Abstract

Atmospheric conditions in any place can affect people's health. In this regard, this study aimed to investigate the climatic conditions of Tabriz (in northwestern Iran) and their relationship with the admission rate of cardiovascular patients in this city. We sought to predict thermal stresses on the hospital admissions rate of cardiovascular patients for the 2030s to 2059. The results of two climate models of CanESM2 and GFDL and three scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 were used to predict climate changes in the coming decades. In the present study, the physiological equivalent temperature (PET) index was applied to monitor and predict thermal stresses. The findings revealed that the colder the PET class, the higher the average of admissions. Based on all climate models and scenarios, it was found that the increase in hospital admissions for the middle classes of the PET index will be more than that of the extreme classes. On the other hand, the effect of global warming will cause an increase in the number of cardiovascular patients at an average rate of 147 people per year.