Predicting changes in land use/land cover and seasonal land surface temperature using multi-temporal landsat images in the northwest region of Bangladesh

Abstract

Land use/land cover (LULC) variations are accelerated by rapid urbanization and significantly impacted global Land Surface Temperature (LST). The dynamic increase in LST results in the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. In this study, future LULC change scenarios, seasonal (summer & winter) LST variations, and LST distribution over different LULC classes were predicted using Landsat satellite images for 1999, 2009, and 2019 in Rajshahi District, Bangladesh. Cellular Automata (CA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) procedures were used to predict the LULC changes and seasonal LST variations for 2029 and 2039. In addition, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informants Interviews (KIIs) were conducted to identify the possible impacts of LULC change, LST shifts, and climate change on agricultural productivity and developed a sustainable land use management plan for the study area. Validation of the CA model demonstrated an excellent accuracy with a kappa value of 0.82. Similarly, the ANN model's validation using Mean Square Error (0.523 and 0.796 for summer) and Correlation coefficient (0.6023 and 0.831 for winter) values demonstrated a good prediction accuracy. The LULC prediction result indicated that the built-up area will be expanded by 58.03 km2 and 79.90 km2, respectively, from 2019 to 2029 and 2039. The predicted seasonal LST indicated that in 2029 and 2039, more than 23.30 % and 50.46 % of the summer and 3.02 % and 13.02 % of the winter seasons will likely be experienced LSTs greater than 35 °C. The results of public participation exposed that changes in LULC classes, variations in LST, and climate change significantly impact the regional biodiversity (loss of farmland and water bodies), reduce agricultural productivity, and increase extreme weather events (flood, heavy rainfall, and cold/warm temperature). This study provides the useful guidelines for agricultural officers, urban planners, and environmental engineers to understand the spatial configurations of built-up area enlargement and provide effective policy measures to conserve farming lands to ensure environmental sustainability.