Predicting changes in “extreme” precipitation

Abstract

Climate Change As temperatures rise, Earth's atmosphere can hold more moisture. This rise in moisture content is expected to lead to a broadly comparable rise in the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events. In a Perspective, Pendergrass explains that whether this expectation is met depends on the definition of extreme precipitation. The intensity of the most extreme events may rise more than expected, as seen for Hurricane Harvey, whereas that of less extreme events may rise less than anticipated. Atmospheric circulation changes will also affect precipitation events in ways that differ from one place to another. Clear definitions of extreme precipitation are key to anticipating and preparing for future changes in extreme events. Science , this issue p. [1072][1] [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aat1871