Predicting Buildings' Energy Use: Is the Occupant-Centric “Performance Gap” Research Program Ill-Advised?

Abstract

The term prediction commonly denotes analysis of building designs, for instance, in view of their future energy demand. The notion of is invoked, when actual performance of buildings does not match preceding predictions. There has been a recent trend to attribute so-called energy performance gap predominantly (sometimes even entirely) to user behavior. As a consequence, a number of research efforts (subsumed hear as the performance gap research program) pursue more accurate predictions of user behavior and exploitation of user-related energy efficiency potential via behavioral modification. In present contribution, we critically revisit premises and orientation of these efforts. Firstly, we suggest to situate related discourse within a structured conceptual framework to objectively discuss spectrum of potential contributors to errors in building energy use predictions. Secondly, we examine frequently purported utility of probabilistic methods and uncertainty analysis as an effectual remedy to problem of performance gap.