Predicting biotic responses to future climate warming with classic ecogeographic rules

Abstract

Models for future environmental change all involve global warming, whether slow or fast. Predicting how plants and animals will respond to such warming can be aided by using ecogeographic biological 'rules', some long-established, that make predictions based on observations in nature, as well as plausible physiological and ecological expectations. Bergmann's rule is well known, namely that warm-blooded animals are generally smaller in warm climates, but six further temperature-related rules - Allen's rule, Gloger's rule, Hesse's rule, Jordan's rule, Rapoport's rule and Thorson's rule - are also worth considering as predictive tools. These rules have been discussed in the recent ecological and physiological literature, and in some cases meta-analytical studies of multiple studies show how they are applicable across taxa and in particular physical environmental situations.