Predicting baseflow recession characteristics at ungauged stream locations using a physical and machine learning approach

Abstract

Prediction of short- (i.e., aquifer is near or at saturated conditions) and long-time (i.e., aquifer is not near or at saturated conditions) baseflow recession characteristics at ungauged stream locations is a current challenge that has been primarily addressed by empirical approaches that relate these characteristics to basin attributes. However, the performance of these models is often only fair with coefficient of determination values ranging from 0.5 to 0.7. In this study, we propose a hybrid physical and machine learning approach to predict the long- and short-time baseflow recession characteristics at ungauged stream locations. This approach is compared to a machine learning method, random forest regression, that relates baseflow recession characteristics to basin attributes in 582 basins across the western and eastern United States. The new approach resulted in lower median and inner quartile ranges (IQR) of absolute normalized errors in predicting long-time baseflow recession characteristics (western: 23%, IQR=32%; eastern: 30%, IQR=39%) compared to estimates of those properties based on random forest regressions (western: 27%, IQR=34%; eastern: 38%, IQR=50%). For the short-time baseflow recession characteristics, the hybrid approach resulted in substantially lower median errors and IQR values (western: 79%, IQR=143%; eastern: 83%, IQR=140%) compared to estimates from random forest regressions (western: 1,577%, IQR=8,887%; eastern: 341%, IQR=2,154%). In addition, this approach identified four major regions in the western United States and three in the eastern United States where the baseflow recession characteristics are mostly constant, and these characteristics only vary based on the geometric properties of aquifers. Lastly, the inter-basin variability of the baseflow recession characteristics was not found to be strongly related to metrics measuring interstorm arrival periods, average number of storms, and average length of storms.