PREDICTING BANKRUPTCY OF MOBILE COMPANIES BEFORE AND AFTER THE PANDEMIC COVID-19 IN THE GREEK EMERGING MARKET

Abstract

In this work we analyze three of the most basic bankruptcy prediction models that have been developed and in particular Altman's Z''-score model, Ohlson's model and finally Chesser's model. These models are then applied to the three mobile phone companies that operating in emerging market such as Greece. The aim of the present study is to determine firstly whether bankruptcy is looming in these mobile companies and secondly which of the used bankruptcy models present more accurate information about whether bankruptcy is present or looming. In addition, the bankruptcy risk of each company is determined based on its probability of bankruptcy and it is assigned a credit score based on which it is classified in a credit tier. Finally, the credit risk premium required by investors, the expected losses of its creditors and the expected value of the company in the event of bankruptcy are determined. The companies under review are Cosmote, Vodafone and Nova for the last five years 2018-2022. This five year of examined time period includes two years 2018-2019 before the pandemic Covid-19, the year of the pandemic 2020, and two years 2021-2022 after the pandemic, so it allow us to observe if there is an infection of the pandemic in the results of bankruptcy models
 Keywords: Bankruptcy, Emerging Markets, Corporate Finance
 JEL: G1, G3, G33.