Abstract
Purpose This research develops a data-driven statistical model capable of predicting a US Army Reserve (USAR) unit staffing levels based on unit location demographics. This model provides decision makers an assessment of a proposed station location’s ability to support a unit’s personnel requirements from the local population. Design/methodology/approach This research first develops an allocation method to overcome challenges caused by overlapping unit boundaries to prevent over-counting the population. Once populations are accurately allocated to each location, we then then develop and compare the performance of statistical models to estimate a location’s likelihood of meeting staffing requirements. Findings This research finds that local demographic factors prove essential to a location’s ability to meet staffing requirements. We recommend that the USAR and US Army Recruiting Command (USAREC) use the logistic regression model developed here to support USAR unit stationing decisions; this should improve the ability of units to achieve required staffing levels. Originality/value This research meets a direct request from the USAREC, in conjunction with the USAR, for assistance in developing models to aid decision makers during the unit stationing process.
Highlights
Location selection for US Army Reserve (USAR) units is a challenging multiple-attribute decision analysis problem
We verified the final logistic regression model structure using the stepwise (step()) function included in R to consider adding any previously removed variable if it improved the model’s AIC
We aggregated demographic data from eight separate data sources resulting in a final data set that contained 17 demographic factors for each ZIP code within a 90-min drive of any reserve center
Summary
Location selection for US Army Reserve (USAR) units is a challenging multiple-attribute decision analysis problem. The USAR supplies 75 per cent of support units and capabilities such as logistics, medical, engineering, military information support and civil affairs. Together, these comprise half of the Army’s combat support and combat service support forces [Office of the Chief of Army Reserves (OCAR), 2015]. Unlike an active duty Army unit, the geographic location of a USAR Troop Program Unit (TPU) has a direct impact on its ability to meet staffing goals and related personnel readiness requirements. The wide range of reserve location fill rates (actual staffing as a percentage of authorized requirement) depicted in Figure 1 highlights the USAR struggle to meet staffing goals at the individual TPU level, with some units significantly over- or under-strength
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