Abstract
Mosquito-borne pathogens continue to be a significant burden within human populations, with Aedes aegypti continuing to spread dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus throughout the world. Using data from a previously conducted study, a linear regression model was constructed to predict the aquatic development rates based on the average temperature, temperature fluctuation range, and larval density. Additional experiments were conducted with different parameters of average temperature and larval density to validate the model. Using a paired t-test, the model predictions were compared to experimental data and showed that the prediction models were not significantly different for average pupation rate, adult emergence rate, and juvenile mortality rate. The models developed will be useful for modeling and estimating the upper limit of the number of Aedes aegypti in the environment under different temperature, diurnal temperature variations, and larval densities.
Highlights
The global burden of mosquito-borne pathogens such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus, has been increasing with changing climate and the expansion of mosquito populations into new areas [1,2,3]
Feeding primarily on humans and breeding in man-made containers in close proximity, Aedes aegypti are among the species of mosquitoes that are contributing to the dispersion of mosquito-borne pathogens in human populations [9,10]
The average rate of pupation was positively correlated with average temperature (X1), temperature range (X2), and larval density (X3)
Summary
The global burden of mosquito-borne pathogens such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus, has been increasing with changing climate and the expansion of mosquito populations into new areas [1,2,3]. Feeding primarily on humans and breeding in man-made containers in close proximity, Aedes aegypti are among the species of mosquitoes that are contributing to the dispersion of mosquito-borne pathogens in human populations [9,10]. Prior studies have shown that larval density within aquatic breeding sites play a role in the rate at which larvae pupate and pupae emerge as adults [25,26,27,28,29,30]. We utilize results from experiments detailed by Zapletal et al [30] and fit a regression model to predict the rates of Ae. aegypti pupation, emergence and mortality under
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