Predicting apricot phenology using meteorological data

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to develop feasible, easy to apply models for early prediction of full flowering (FF) and maturing (MA) in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.). Phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region were modeled against averages of daily temperature records over ten seasons for FF and eight seasons for MA. A much stronger correlation was found between the phenological timing and temperature at the very beginning than at the end of phenophases. Also, the length of developmental periods were better correlated to daily maximum than to daily minimum and mean air temperatures. Using prediction models based on daily maximum temperatures averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods, starting from 1 January for FF prediction and from the date of FF for MA prediction, the onset of examined phenophases in apricot cultivars could be predicted from a few weeks to up to 2months ahead with acceptable accuracy. The mean absolute differences between the observations and cross-validated predictions obtained by 30-, 45- and 60-day models were 8.6, 6.9 and 5.7days for FF and 6.1, 3.6 and 2.8days for MA, respectively. The validity of the results was confirmed using an independent data set for the year 2009.