Predicting and managing megaproject gray rhino risks with IF-ANP and DEMATEL based on panel data

Abstract

The use of the combination of color and animal as a metaphor for the risk is a common and vivid practice, such as white elephant risk, white rabbit risk, golden monkey risk, grey rhino risk, black swan risk, and so on. Black swan risk and grey rhino risk are a set of relative concepts. The black swan is used as a metaphor for rare, unpredictable risks. The grey rhino is used as a metaphor for common but often overlooked risks. Statistics show that most megaproject failures are caused by common gray rhino risks rather than rare black swan risks. Existing studies disregard the interactions among risks, which results in managers being unable to effectively avoid the recurrence of common risks. Therefore, this study applies a decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory model (DEMATEL) research method to rank risks by the strength of the interactions among the risks. It can provide a new perspective for decision-makers when they develop a defense plan for megaproject risks. Also, a megaproject is a kind of complex nonlinear system. This results in serious subjectivity when experts directly assign quantitative values to the relations among risks. To reduce the effect of the nonlinearity, this work created an interference fuzzy analytical network process (IF-ANP). In our experiments, this method effectively reduced the fluctuation of the evaluation values of each expert and improved research accuracy. Empirical research was done to assess common risks in the Chengdu–Chongqing Middle Line High-speed Railway megaproject (CMLHRm) by panel data that was collected from 1.12.2020 to 6.30.2022. The result of the case study shows that there are obvious interactions among risks and these interactions are dynamic. Through the combination method proposed in this work, experts can make effective risk response suggestions in time at different stages of the megaproject.