Predicting Alzheimer’s Disease with Interpretable Machine Learning

Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to develop novel machine learning models for predicting Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and identify key factors for targeted prevention. Methods: We included 1,219, 863, and 482 participants aged 60+ years with only sociodemographic, both sociodemographic and self-reported health, both the former two and blood biomarkers information from Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. Machine learning models were constructed for predicting the risk of AD for the above three populations. Model performance was evaluated by discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) was applied to identify key predictors of optimal models. Results: The mean age was 73.49, 74.52, and 74.29 years for the three populations, respectively. Models with sociodemographic information and models with both sociodemographic and self-reported health information showed modest performance. For models with sociodemographic, self-reported health, and blood biomarker information, their overall performance improved substantially, specifically, logistic regression performed best, with an AUC value of 0.818. Blood biomarkers of ptau protein and plasma neurofilament light, age, blood tau protein, and education level were top five significant predictors. In addition, taurine, inosine, xanthine, marital status, and L.Glutamine also showed importance to AD prediction. Conclusion: Interpretable machine learning showed promise in screening high-risk AD individual and could further identify key predictors for targeted prevention.