Predicting agricultural and meteorological droughts using Holt Winter Conventional 2D-Long Short-Term Memory (HW-Conv2DLSTM).

Abstract

Drought is an extended shortage of rainfall resulting in water scarcity and affecting a region's social and economic conditions through environmental deterioration. Its adverse environmental effects can be minimised by timely prediction. Drought detection uses only ground observation stations, but satellite-based supervision scans huge land mass stretches and offers highly effective monitoring. This paper puts forward a novel drought monitoring system using satellite imagery by considering the effects of droughts that devastated agriculture in Thanjavur district, Tamil Nadu, between 2000 and 2022. The proposed method uses Holt Winter Conventional 2D-Long Short-Term Memory (HW-Conv2DLSTM) to forecast meteorological and agricultural droughts. It employs Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data precipitation index datasets, MODIS 11A1 temperature index, and MODIS 13Q1 vegetation index. It extracts the time series data from satellite images using trend and seasonal patterns and smoothens them using Holt Winter alpha, beta, and gamma parameters. Finally, an effective drought prediction procedure is developed using Conv2D-LSTM to calculate the spatiotemporal correlation amongst drought indices. The HW-Conv2DLSTM offers a better R2 value of 0.97. It holds promise as an effective computer-assisted strategy to predict droughts and maintain agricultural productivity, which is vital to feed the ever-increasing human population.