Predicting Adolescents' Intentions to Smoke Cigarettes

Abstract

Adolescents' intentions to smoke cigarettes are predicted by Ajzen and Fishbein's (1970) model and by the distal variables derivedfrom Jessor and Jessor's (1977) problem-behavior theory, as well as by several other variables relevant to cigarette smoking. The Ajzen and Fishbein model is found to have significant predictive ability for all smoking statuses in both middle-school and high-school subjects. The Jessor and Jessor distal variables also have significant predictive ability for all smoking statuses in the two groups, but account for less of the variance in behavioral intentions. Additionally, except for subjects who smoke, the distal variables are found to add only a small amount of explained variance in the behavioral intentions to the Ajzen and Fishbein model when the two sets of variables are combined in hierarchical regressions. Subjects' estimates of smoking prevalence, health beliefs, and number offriends who smoke are also found to bear some relation to smoking intentions. The discussion of results is directed toward the prevention of initiating cigarette smoking. Suggestions are made about tailoring prevention programs to the characteristics of the adolescents at risk.