Predicted supplies of oil: A controversy revisited

Abstract

This investigation had two objectives: 1. (1) To consider future problems of the oil industry, as envisaged at the time of the impending 1973–1974 unit-oil-price crisis. To this end, selected early 1970's pertinent published papers have been analysed and their conclusions now assessed in hindsight. The chosen published articles were considered then to be in part controversial, visionary and simultaneously, often predicting very different outcomes for the future supply, demand and unit cost of crude oil. 2. (2) To assess pertinent recent research, and compare what we at present believe to be the status quo for the oil industry, with the perception of how the industry would have developed as portrayed by the early 1970's oil publications.