Predicted microlensing events from analysis of Gaia Data Release 2

Abstract

Context. Astrometric microlensing can be used to make precise measurements of the masses of lens stars that are independent of their assumed internal physics. Such direct mass measurements, obtained purely by observing the gravitational effects of the stars on external objects, are crucial for validating theoretical stellar models. Specifically, astrometric microlensing provides a channel to direct mass measurements of single stars for which so few measurements exist. Microlensing events that also exhibit a detectable photometric signature provide even stronger lens mass constraints. Aims. I use the astrometric solutions and photometric measurements of ~1.7 billion stars provided by Gaia Data Release 2 (GDR2) to predict microlensing events during the nominal Gaia mission and beyond. This will enable astronomers to observe the entirety of each event, including the peak, with appropriate observing resources. The data collected will allow precise lens mass measurements for white dwarfs and low-mass main sequence stars (K and M dwarfs) helping to constrain stellar evolutionary models. Methods. I search for source-lens pairs in GDR2 that could potentially lead to microlensing events between 25th July 2014 and 25th July 2026. I estimate the lens masses using GDR2 photometry and parallaxes, and appropriate model stellar isochrones. Combined with the source and lens parallax measurements from GDR2, this allows the Einstein ring radius to be computed for each source-lens pair. By considering the source and lens paths on the sky, I calculate the microlensing signals that are to be expected. Results. I present a list of 76 predicted microlensing events. Nine and five astrometric events will be caused by the white dwarf stars LAWD 37 and Stein 2051 B, respectively. A further nine events will exhibit detectable photometric and astrometric signatures. Of the remaining events, ten will exhibit astrometric signals with peak amplitudes above 0.5 mas, while the rest are low-amplitude astrometric events with peak amplitudes between 0.131 and 0.5 mas. Five and two events will reach their peaks during 2018 and 2019, respectively. Five of the photometric events have the potential to evolve into high-magnification events, which may also probe for planetary companions to the lenses.