Predicted economic damage from a quick, simple Alzheimer's disease cure

Abstract

The estimated 5.8 million Alzheimer’s disease patients in the U.S. require an enormous share of national healthcare expenditures. Other nations face similar economic burdens. There have been great efforts, thus far unsuccessful, to discover an effective therapeutic, with 1081 Alzheimer’s disease drug trials completed as of May 2019. The pessimism thus engendered has forestalled contingency planning for the potential major economic repercussions of a simple, quick cure. Yet, promising new research spotlighting the possible “trigger” role of infectious agents might allow some or all cases of Alzheimer’s disease to be halted, reversed, or prevented with an antibiotic or antiviral compound, possibly even one already approved by drug regulators for other uses. The sudden advent of such an unexpected therapy would theoretically have dramatic impacts, both detrimental and beneficial, on the American economy. The damages would include a $414 billion shrinkage of Medicaid, Medicare and other revenues to all six sectors comprising the healthcare provider category. Nursing homes and skilled nursing facilities are projected to suffer the greatest loss of annual revenue: $51 billion and $16 billion, respectively. This would cause the loss of an estimated 654,000 jobs. Facility mortgage and commercial loan repayments could stop. Other adverse consequences would include detrimental effects on reserves for Social Security and pensions, cutbacks in dementia research funding, and reduced donations to Alzheimer’s disease advocacy groups. Insurance company reserves for fixed payment annuities already sold could be jeopardized. However, an Alzheimer’s disease cure would also create economic beneficiaries. Medicare and Medicaid would save up to a projected $195 billion annually. Life insurance companies and unpaid caregivers would also benefit financially. By identifying the healthcare sectors likely to be detrimentally impacted by a simple, quick Alzheimer’s disease cure, contingency plans can be made in the U.S. and other countries to assist the foreseeable painful transitions for staff and facilities.