Predicted climate change will increase the truffle cultivation potential in central Europe

Tomáš Čejka,Daniel Oliach,Paul J Krusic,Willy Tegel,Miroslav Trnka,Ulrich Stobbe,Tomáš Václavík,Ulf Büntgen

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-76177-0

Abstract

Climate change affects the distribution of many species, including Burgundy and Périgord truffles in central and southern Europe, respectively. The cultivation potential of these high-prized cash crops under future warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Here we perform a literature review to define the ecological requirements for the growth of both truffle species. This information is used to develop niche models, and to estimate their cultivation potential in the Czech Republic under current (2020) and future (2050) climate conditions. The Burgundy truffle is already highly suitable for cultivation on ~ 14% of agricultural land in the Czech Republic (8486 km2), whereas only ~ 8% of the warmest part of southern Moravia are currently characterised by a low suitability for Périgord truffles (6418 km2). Though rising temperatures under RCP8.5 will reduce the highly suitable cultivation areas by 7%, the 250 km2 (3%) expansion under low-emission scenarios will stimulate Burgundy truffles to benefit from future warming. Doubling the moderate and expanding the highly suitable land by 352 km2 in 2050, the overall cultivation potential for Périgord truffles will rise substantially. Our findings suggest that Burgundy and Périgord truffles could become important high-value crops for many regions in central Europe with alkaline soils. Although associated with uncertainty, long-term investments in truffle cultivation could generate a wide range of ecological and economic benefits.

Highlights

Climate change affects the distribution of many species, including Burgundy and Périgord truffles in central and southern Europe, respectively
We review the ecological requirements of Burgundy and Périgord truffles in the existing body of literature, model the current (2020) and future (2050) cultivation potential of both truffle species in the Czech Republic, discuss the uncertainties of our model approach, and outline the implications associated with a possible increase of truffle cultivation in central Europe under future climate change
The Burgundy truffle should receive ~ 700 mm annual precipitation, of which ~ 160 mm should occur in summer

Summary

Introduction

Climate change affects the distribution of many species, including Burgundy and Périgord truffles in central and southern Europe, respectively. We perform a literature review to define the ecological requirements for the growth of both truffle species This information is used to develop niche models, and to estimate their cultivation potential in the Czech Republic under current (2020) and future (2050) climate conditions. Though rising temperatures under RCP8.5 will reduce the highly suitable cultivation areas by 7%, the 250 km[2] (3%) expansion under low-emission scenarios will stimulate Burgundy truffles to benefit from future warming. Well-informed ecological models can estimate the potential geographic distribution of individual species under future climate c hange[8,9]. Growing in much of Europe[20], the Burgundy truffle is expected to offer great potential to be cultivated in new regions as climate change p rogresses[21]. Truffle cultivation has many socio-economic and ecological benefits including myco-tourism, increased land value, habitat conservation, and land-use diversification[23,28,30]

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Conclusion