Predicted areas of potential distributions of alpine wetlands under different scenarios in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

Abstract

Wetlands are vulnerable ecosystems to climate change for they would normally adapt slowly to keep pace with changing environmental conditions especially wetlands located at high altitudes which are under threat of severe warming. In this paper, we used distribution data of four types of wetlands in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and ensemble habitat distribution models (HDMs) to assess the potential impacts of climate change under three IPCC scenarios. The baseline year was 2000s and the scenarios were used for 3 periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) at a spatial resolution of 1×1km. The simulation results show that severe warming will happen in mid-21st century and annual average temperature will be above 0°C. Areas climatically suitable for alpine wetlands tend to shift and shrink generally in the QTP in the future. Even under the optimistic scenario, the total area of wetland is predicted to decline by 35.7%. Nearly all wet meadow and saltmarsh will disappear under all scenarios in the Qiangtang basin. Vital functions of alpine wetlands such as carbon sequestration, water maintain, and habitats provide will be at severe risk. This research provides valuable information for the future conservation of the alpine wetlands within the QTP.