Predicted and Experienced Affective Responses to the Outcome of the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

People typically have intense feelings about politics. Therefore, it was no surprise that the campaign and eventual election of Barack Obama were highly anticipated and emotionally charged events, making it and the emotion experienced afterward a useful situation in which to replicate prior research showing that people typically overestimate the intensity and duration of their future affective states. Consequently, it was expected that Obama supporters and McCain supporters might overestimate the intensity of their affective responses to the outcome of the election. Data showed that while McCain supporters underestimated how happy they would be following the election, Obama supporters accurately predicted how happy they would be following the election. These data provide descriptive information on the accuracy of people's predicted reactions to the 2008 U.S. presidential election. The findings are discussed in the context of the broad literature and this specific and unique event.