Abstract
Climate change (CC) is predicted to increase the risk of aflatoxin (AF) contamination in maize, as highlighted by a project supported by EFSA in 2009. We performed a comprehensive literature search using the Scopus search engine to extract peer-reviewed studies citing this study. A total of 224 papers were identified after step I filtering (187 + 37), while step II filtering identified 25 of these papers for quantitative analysis. The unselected papers (199) were categorized as “actions” because they provided a sounding board for the expected impact of CC on AFB1 contamination, without adding new data on the topic. The remaining papers were considered as “reactions” of the scientific community because they went a step further in their data and ideas. Interesting statements taken from the “reactions” could be summarized with the following keywords: Chain and multi-actor approach, intersectoral and multidisciplinary, resilience, human and animal health, and global vision. In addition, fields meriting increased research efforts were summarized as the improvement of predictive modeling; extension to different crops and geographic areas; and the impact of CC on fungi and mycotoxin co-occurrence, both in crops and their value chains, up to consumers.
Highlights
Key Contribution: Advances in modeling the impact of climate change (CC) on aflatoxin occurrence in maize over the last decade have been limited, mainly being considered by Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, with few contributions from the continents where mycotoxin contamination is a major problem (Africa and Asia)
Related topics have been purposed, such as the co-occurrence of fungi and their impact on mycotoxin contamination, the chain approach, and the link between the expected increase in aflatoxin occurrence resulting from Climate change (CC) and its impact on human and animal health
The mycotoxins of greatest concern to food and feed safety are produced by members of a few genera of filamentous fungi, with Aspergillus, Fusarium and Penicillium playing a key role
Summary
The mycotoxins of greatest concern to food and feed safety are produced by members of a few genera of filamentous fungi, with Aspergillus, Fusarium and Penicillium playing a key role. These fungi colonize many crops and are adapted to a wide range of environmental conditions, having different but partially overlapping ecological niches [1]. Two CC scenarios, +2 ◦C and +5 ◦C above pre-industrial levels, which consider whether or not mitigation strategies for CC are applied, in addition to the present (baseline) scenario were considered in the funded project, MODMAP-AFLA These scenarios provided the data input for AFLA-maize [16], a mechanistic model, able to predict AF contamination risk using weather data as input. We identified the actions and reactions of the scientific community based on the results of the MODMAP-AFLA project [17,18]
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