Predictably Unpredictable Trade Policy – the United States versus All Others

Abstract

The article explores the Trump administration’s trade policy, characterized by: attempts to rewrite the rules of international trade according to the regulations established by the American side, “skepticism” with respect to the international regulatory institutions of foreign trade, a course on the renegotiation of the existing agreements. In a relationship with a number of countries, manifestations of “ultimatizm” – the desire to negotiate with them from a position of strength are becoming increasingly evident. Relapses of economic isolationism under the slogan “Restore the Greatness of America” periodically are being transformed into concrete protectionist actions. The number of imposed import restrictions is growing, and their arsenal is expanding. It is concluded, that tightening of the market access to the domestic market for foreign suppliers is unlikely to lead to a significant reduction in the US trade deficit. Bet on abandoning multilateral arrangements in favor of bilateral trade agreements, conscious downplaying of the role and importance of the WTO and other international institutions can also be counterproductive. Focus on dominance in the sphere of foreign economic activity apparently will remain the main direction of Trump trade policy until the end of the term of his administration. However, under pressure from competitors, and because of the lack of real allies, the United States will be forced to demonstrate greater flexibility and pragmatism, the propensity to compromise and to establishment of temporary or permanent blocs with their main trading partners. The idea of “normality”, refraining from populism, will gradually begin to return to the trade policy of this country. If, however the Trump government will continue to act in isolation, without taking into account the opinion of the world community, an increasing number of partners of the United States will perceive it not as a leader, but as a violator of the rules of international trade. Under certain circumstances, such a policy can provoke local and global trade conflicts. In addition, the United States not necessarily will have to be the winner in them.