Predictable Mode of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in Boreal Summer

Abstract

AbstractThis work uses a 19-yr ensemble hindcast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the average predictable time (APT) method to detect the most predictable tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) mode. The first and most predictable mode (APT1) of tropical ISV is similar to a joint merger of the two Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) modes with more weight on the second mode and is characterized by a tripole pattern with two positive centers in the equatorial western Indian Ocean and central Pacific Ocean and a negative center over the Maritime Continent. The APT1 doubles the skillful prediction period made by the MJO defined by a correlation skill of 0.5 (approximately 25 days in the ECMWF model), demonstrating its potential to become a skillful prediction target and to offer powerful subseasonal prediction sources. The underlying physical process and predictability source of the APT1 are further analyzed. The APT1 is very similar to the pattern triggered by the most predictable tropical intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies mode, suggesting its oceanic origin. Tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction plays a critical role in the APT1 by enhancing the evolution of tropical convection cells under WES (wind–evaporation–SST) and Bjerknes feedbacks. The internal atmospheric processes also have an important impact on the formation and maintenance of the APT1.