Predictability of the Seismic Energy Flux: Southern Europe and the Mediterranean

Abstract

The paper assessed the predictability of the seismic energy rate and large earthquakes in southern Europe and the Mediterranean according to the data from the United States Geological Survey catalog for 1900–2016. A nonlinear second-order differential equation is used as a mathematical model, and optimization and predictability estimation algorithms are this author’s. The estimates show a high predictability of energy rate trends. For 84 out of 217 large earthquakes in the region, we have found foreshock predictability, and aftershock predictability for 200 earthquakes. The predictability of large earthquakes begins to be seen at small (1.5–7.5 km) radii of hypocenter samples, increases rapidly at medium (15 and 30 km) radii, then more smoothly increases at a radius of 60 km and decreases slightly at a radius of 150 km. The predicted distance in time averages tens of days for foreshock predictability and thousands of days for aftershocks. The results demonstrate good prospects for the approximation–extrapolation approach to the prediction of both earthquakes themselves and the subsequent aftershock decay of seismic activity.