Abstract
ABSTRACT In this work, the role of initial conditions (ICs) and boundary conditions (BCs) in the predictability of natural flows of large river basins (>1000 km2) in South America using the South American Large Basins Model (MGB-SA) was investigated. We proposed an analysis based on a simple metric: predictability was estimated by the number of days in which the streamflow forecasts performed above a given threshold. The role of ICs was assessed through null precipitation experiments and the role of BCs through climatological rainfall. For experiments with a Kling-Gupta efficiency metric and threshold of 0.95, the study shows that streamflow predictability from the ICs is relatively high (up to 40 days) in the main river reaches of flat-relief basins. The increase in predictability due to climatology-based BCs mostly occurs in areas with high predictability based on ICs. Basins with fast response present low streamflow predictability (up to three days).
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