Predictability and evolutionary determinism — the search for quantitative explanation

Abstract

Physics describes reality through the understanding and elucidation of physical laws. From these laws, the universe is predictable. It has indeed been suggested that explanation of observable phenomena comes from our ability to predict these events, through our understanding of physical laws and causal processes. Biological entities operate, of course, through physical and chemical laws. But there exist biological processes that have emergent properties, notably the evolution of adaptation through natural selection, which add an extra dimension to the concept of the understanding of biological phenotypes. The population genetic theory of evolution is mathematically formulated, and contains elements of determinism, typified by the action of natural selection, and elements of randomness, typified by the action of genetic drift and by the randomness of mutation. But is the goal-directed property of natural selection sufficient to conclude that the deterministic elements of the evolutionary process make evolutionary change predictable? And to what extent can we expect 'adaptation' to function as an explanation of biological phenotypes?