Predecessor rain events over China’s low-latitude highlands associated with Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones

Abstract

A predecessor rain event (PRE) is defined as organized heavy rainfall that occurs far ahead of tropical cyclone (TC), yet directly associated with the deep tropical moisture originating from the TC vicinity. The PREs occurring over China’s low-latitude highlands (CLLH) in association with Bay of Bengal TCs were investigated from 1981 to 2012. Results indicate that about 19% of Bay of Bengal TCs produces PRE. The PREs frequently occur when TCs are active in the northern Bay of Bengal with northeastward paths. The PREs are more likely to appear in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, with peaks in May and October, respectively. The median lifetime of the PREs was approximately two days. The distances between PREs and parent TCs are ranged from 745 to 1849 km, with a median distance of 1118 km. Composite results of PREs suggested that deep moisture is advected from the TC vicinity to the remote CLLH region, which is situated beneath the equatorward entrance of the upper-level East Asia subtropical jet (EASJ). The lower-level southwesterly flow, which is associated with a strong pressure gradient between the western Pacific subtropical high and a trough in Bay of Bengal, steers TCs conveying abundant moisture from the Bay of Bengal to the CLLH region. The enhancement of the ascent and frontogenesis within the equatorward entrance region of the EASJ is favorable for occurrence of PREs in CLLH. TCs may also have a dynamical role in occurrence of PREs by intensifying the upper-level EASJ.