Predator–prey relationships and responses of ungulates and their predators to the establishment of protected areas: A case study of tigers, leopards and their prey in Bardia National Park, Nepal

Abstract

Interactions among sympatric large predators and their prey and how they respond to conservation measures are poorly known. This study examines predictions concerning the effects of establishing a protected area in Nepal on tigers ( Panthera tigris), leopards ( Panthera pardus), and their ungulate prey. Within a part of the park, after 22 years the total density of wild ungulates had increased fourfold, to ca. 200 animals/km 2, almost exclusively due to a remarkable increase in chital deer ( Axis axis). Tiger density also increased markedly to nearly 20 animals/100 km 2, whereas leopard density did not and was ca. 5 animals/100 km 2. The prediction that grazers should increase more than browsers was only partially supported. The prediction of positive density dependence in prey selection was not supported. Instead, the most abundant species (chital and hog deer, Axis porcinus) were killed less frequently than expected, whereas the lower-density wild boar ( Sus scrofa) was preferred. Predictions that (i) initially rare species suffer highest predation was partially supported, that (ii) predation is highest among the most abundant prey was not supported, and that (iii) predation is highest among the most preferred prey independently of their densities was supported. Clearly, the conservation efforts adopted in Bardia were successful, as both tigers and their natural prey base increased. However, the positive numerical response of tigers limited and depressed the abundance of some prey species. Thus, conservation activities aimed at restoring large predators are likely to change in the composition of the overall mammal community, potentially eliminating rare but preferred prey species.