Precursory seismic quiescence along the Sagaing fault zone, Central Myanmar–application of the region-time-length algorithm

Abstract

In this study, the quiescence stage of seismicity prior to seven strong-to-major earthquakes posed along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central of Myanmar were evaluated using the Region-Time-Length (RTL) algorithm. After improving the completeness of the earthquake catalogue, the suitable characteristics of RTL parameters were tested retrospectively with seven strong-to-major earthquakes available in the catalogue. According to the iterative test, the parameters r0 = 150 km and t0 = 3 y were suitable for detecting the precursory seismic quiescence along the SFZ. Consequently, with the implementation of these parameters and the present-day seismicity data of 1960–2015, the quiescence maps obtained indicated that western Myitkyina and the area in the vicinity of the Naypyidaw segments of the SFZ are at risk from future earthquakes. Therefore, effective mitigation plans should be developed.