Precursory quiescence before the August 1982 Stone Canyon, San Andreas fault, earthquakes

Abstract

The Stone Canyon earthquake sequence started during August 1982 and lasted for about four months. It contained four mainshocks withM L ≥4, each with an aftershock zone about 4 km long. These mainshocks, progressing from southeast to northwest, ruptured a segment of the fault approximately 20 km long leaving two gaps, which were later filled by theM L =4.6 mainshocks of January 14, and May 31, 1986. The equivalent magnitude of the sequence isM L =5.0. Precursory seismic quiescence could be identified in: (1) the northernmost 10 km of the aftershock zone which contained three of the mainshocks; and (2) the southern gap in the aftershock zone. The fault segment containing the first mainshock and its aftershocks did not show quiescence. This pattern of precursory quiescence is very similar to two cases in Hawaii where the rupture initiation points of the mainshocks (M S =7.2 and 6.6, respectively) were located in volumes of constant seismicity rate, surrounded by volumes with pronounced precursory quiescence. The precursory quiescence before the August 1982 Stone Canyon earthquakes lasted for 76 weeks, amounted to a reduction in rate of about 60%, and could be recognized without any false alarms. That is, the anomaly was unique within the 60 km study segment of the fault and in the years 1975 through August 1982. Eighteen foreshocks occurred between July 27 and August 7, 1982. We conclude that the August 1982 mainshocks could have been predicted, based on seismic quiescence and foreshocks.