Precursory Off‐Fault Deformation in Restraining and Releasing Step Overs: Insights From Discrete Element Method Models

Abstract

AbstractAccelerating geophysical activity is detected preceding some, but not all, large earthquakes. This observation may indicate that no precursors occur before some earthquakes, or that the instrumentation lacks the required sensitivity. To aid crustal monitoring efforts, we use discrete element method models to identify the locations and styles of deformation that may provide useful information about approaching fault reactivation. We model the reactivation of two healed rough faults in a variety of step over configurations, embedded in a host rock with varying amounts of damage subject to shear velocity loading parallel to the faults. Both the fault geometry and ratio of fault to host rock strength control the amount of off‐fault deformation. Consistent with field observations, models with larger steps and more preexisting host rock damage produce higher amounts of off‐fault deformation. We assess the size of the continuous regions of high velocities and strains to compare the value of the precursory information of each velocity and strain component. Comparing the three components of the velocity vector suggests that the fault‐parallel velocity produces the largest and most temporally continuous regions of elevated velocity. The size of these regions increases toward failure, indicating the usefulness of tracking this component. Comparing the volumetric and shear components of the three‐dimensional strain tensor suggests that during most of the interseismic period, the shear strain provides more information about approaching fault slip than the volumetric strain. However, in the days and months preceding fault reactivation, both the shear and volumetric strains provide similarly valuable information.