Precision Clinical Medicine Through Machine Learning: Using High and Low Quantile Ranges of Vital Signs for Risk Stratification of ICU Patients

Abstract

Remote monitoring of patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is a crucial observation and assessment task that is necessary for precision medicine. In this work, we follow the state-of-the-art in risk stratification through machine learning-based prediction, but with minimal features that rely on vital signs, the most commonly used physiological variables obtained inside and outside hospitals. We provide a formal representation of a feature engineering algorithm and report the development and validation of three reproducible machine learning prediction models: ICU patient readmission, abnormality, and next-day vital sign measurements. For the readmission model, we proposed two solutions for data with imbalanced classes and applied five binary classification algorithms to each solution. For the abnormality model, we applied the same five algorithms to predict whether a patient will show abnormal health conditions. Our findings indicate that we can still achieve a reasonable performance using these machine learning models by focusing on low and high quantile ranges of vital signs. The best accuracy achieved in the readmission model was around 67.53%, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.7376. The highest accuracy achieved in the abnormality model was around 67.40%, with an AUROC of 0.7379. For the next-day vital sign measurements model, we provide three approaches for selecting model predictors and apply the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Random Forest Regression (RFR) algorithms to each solution. We found that, in general, the use of the most recent vital sign measurements achieves the least prediction error. Considering the large investment from the medical industry in patient monitoring devices, the developed models will be incorporated into an Intelligent ICU Patient Monitoring (IICUPM) module that can potentially facilitate the delivery of high quality care by implementing cost-efficient policies for handling the patients who utilize ICU resources the most.