Abstract
Precipitation variability is a potentially important driver of infectious diseases that are leading causes of child morbidity and mortality worldwide. Disentangling the links between precipitation variability and disease risk is crucial in a changing climate. We aimed to investigate the links between precipitation variability and reported symptoms of infectious disease (cough, fever, and diarrhoea) in children younger than 5 years. We used nationally representative survey data collected between 2014 and 2019 from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) surveys for 32 low-income to middle-income countries in combination with high-resolution precipitation data (via the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station dataset). We only included DHS data for which interview dates and GPS coordinates (latitude and longitude) of household clusters were available. We used a regression modelling approach to assess the relationship between different precipitation variability measures and infectious disease symptoms (cough, fever, and diarrhoea), and explored the effect modification of different climate zones and disease susceptibility factors. Our global analysis showed that anomalously wet conditions increase the risk of cough, fever, and diarrhoea symptoms in humid, subtropical regions. These health risks also increased in tropical savanna regions as a result of anomalously dry conditions. Our analysis of susceptibility factors suggests that unimproved sanitation and unsafe drinking water sources are exacerbating these effects, particularly for rural populations and in drought-prone areas in tropical savanna. Weather shifts can affect the survival and transmission of pathogens that are particularly harmful to young children. As our findings show, the health burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases can be substantial and is likely to fall on populations that are already among the most disadvantaged, including households living in remote rural areas and those lacking access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure. University of California, San Diego FY19 Center Launch programme.
Highlights
WHO reported that acute respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, and other preventable communicable diseases are the top three causes of post-neonatal deaths worldwide, and are responsible for 43% of annual deaths among children younger than 5 years globally.[1]
Arid Mediterranean climate regions are projected to receive less frequent but more intense precipitation,[6] while monsoon regions are expected to experience intensified precipitation along with delayed wet season onset.[7]. In both types of regions, shorter wet seasons and more variable precipitation patterns can increase the occurrence of flood and drought, which are known to contribute to the differential incidence of infectious disease, and waterborne disease.[8,9]
We focused on health outcome data for children younger than 5 years, who are susceptible to con tracting infectious diseases and might be at an increased risk of death, especially in low-income and-middle income countries (LMICs)
Summary
WHO reported that acute respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, and other preventable communicable diseases are the top three causes of post-neonatal deaths worldwide, and are responsible for 43% of annual deaths among children younger than 5 years globally.[1]. Global warming affects total annual and seasonal precipitation by altering both the frequency and intensity of storms. Arid Mediterranean climate regions are projected to receive less frequent but more intense precipitation,[6] while monsoon regions are expected to experience intensified precipitation along with delayed wet season onset.[7]. In both types of regions, shorter wet seasons and more variable precipitation patterns can increase the occurrence of flood and drought, which are known to contribute to the differential incidence of infectious disease, and waterborne disease.[8,9]. Compound heat waves and drought are already on the rise13—a trend, that exacerbates the impacts of www.thelancet.com/planetary-health Vol 6 February 2022
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