Precipitation Variability and Probabilities of Extreme Events in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (Latakia Governorate-Syria as a Case Study)

Ahmad H Y Abu Hammad,Riad Qara Fallah,Ala A M Salameh

doi:10.3390/atmos13010131

Ahmad H Y Abu Hammad, Riad Qara Fallah + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010131

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Abstract

This study aimed at analysis of the general-index change for the mean annual and seasonal precipitation in six stations in Latakia Governorate (Syria). The data of precipitation were collected for 40 consecutive years (1970–2010) in order to figure out the extent of the changes and variability in precipitation rates and the impact of this change on changes in the potential density that might cause extremely high or low precipitation rates according to Gumbel distribution of the extreme precipitation rates. Results revealed a decrease of the annual precipitation rates in all stations, the reduction in precipitation ranged from 46 to 210 mm during the whole period of the study. Spring, however, recorded the highest and statistically significant reduction, which reached 46–210 mm, while winter precipitation increased by 21–82 mm. Spring also has witnessed a decrease of about 3–9% of the total annual precipitation as compared to winter precipitation which increased by 5–8% of the total. The potential density of extremely high winter precipitation rates increased in all stations as indicated from Gumbel distribution in winter, and a greater increase took place in the probabilities of occurrence of the extremely low spring precipitation rates. This shows significant probability of occurrence of drought during spring season. By contrast, probabilities of winter precipitation rates increased more, thus winter is relatively more humid than before and spring is relatively drier than before.

Highlights

Fluctuations in precipitation could cause socio-economic and natural problems [1,2] such as reduction in agricultural areas and its effect on related economic and social aspects
Gumbel distribution represents potential values of the changes in the mean extreme precipitation amounts during the period 2001–2010
In Al- Qirdaha station, the probability of extreme annual precipitation of less than 681 mm/year increased by 4.46% and the probability of extreme precipitation with more than 1410 mm/year (Figure 4b) increased by about 6.93

Summary

Introduction

Fluctuations in precipitation could cause socio-economic and natural problems [1,2] such as reduction in agricultural areas and its effect on related economic and social aspects. The accelerated development and urbanization processes into the Levant countries, has caused more climate changes with related soil degradation, desertification, water scarcity, overpopulation, and large-scale changes in land use and land cover [23]. Such changes brought further pressure on the available and limited natural resources, especially land and water

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