Precipitation trends using in-situ and gridded datasets

Abstract

Six in situ precipitation time series of varying time periods in the northwestern region and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) v6 0.5° monthly dataset (1901–2010) were statistically examined for monotonic trends in Trinidad. The Pettit test was used to investigate the abrupt changes in the mean while the Mann–Kendall test was employed to assess the monotonic trends. It was found that three in situ stations and the six grids experienced abrupt changes in the rainfall patterns and that there was an apparent shift in the seasons. In addition, for five out of the six in situ stations no monotonic change was detected in the monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall patterns. Gradual decreases were detected in the calculated weighted area average for five stations, the GPCCv6 dataset and St. Ann’s time series. The GPCCv6 data indicated that the dry season in the southern Trinidad is becoming drier. Results also suggested that the range between the greatest and lowest recorded rainfall values for some months have increased while others decreased. The gridded dataset appears to give a good representation of the dry season (January to May) rainfall compared with the wet season (June to December) and was found to be negatively biased for the north-western region but may not necessarily be so for the entire island. The results suggested that in the north-western region mirco-climates may exist. It is recommended that further investigations are needed using in situ data.