Precipitation Trends and Flood Hazard Assessment in a Greek World Heritage Site

Abstract

Natural disasters have become more frequent and intense over the last decade mainly as a result of poor water and land management. Cultural sites and monuments are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters, particularly floods, while mitigation measures and protective infrastructure are difficult to construct within such areas. In the present study, the precipitation trends of the recent past and over the next 80 years were analyzed for the old town of Corfu (UNESCO World Heritage Site) in order to identify potentially significant changes that may affect the flood risk of the area. Moreover, a multi-criteria analysis using GIS software was used to identify high flood hazard zones in this living monument in order to propose specific mitigation measures that are in line with the characteristics of the site. The main effort in this study was to find a methodological approach for a fast but reliable assessment of future changes in the flood risk of historic monuments without the need for a hydrodynamic model and with a limited amount of locally based data. With the selected approach, a good indication of the potential changes in flood risk was provided, according to climate scenarios and simple, physically-based geostatistical models. The results indicate that no significant changes in the flood risk were found for the future climatic conditions, and the identified flood-prone areas will remain approximately the same as today in this particular historic monument. The uncertainty that is included in this output originates mainly from the inherent errors in climate modeling and from the non-high temporal resolution of the data.