Precipitation Thresholds of Drought Disaster for Maize in Areas in Front of Bengbu Sluice, Huaihe River Basin, China

Abstract

Droughts occur frequently during summer maize growth in the Huaihe River Basin, China. Identifying the critical precipitation thresholds that can lead to drought is conducive to drought monitoring and the creation of early warning systems. Based on meteorological data from 66 stations from 1961 to 2015 in areas of the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin (BHR), and using correlation analysis between maize climatic yield and water deficit index at different growth stages, the critical period of water deficit in summer maize growth was determined. Twenty-eight types of distribution functions were used to fit the precipitation sequence during the critical period for water during summer maize growth. By applying Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion, an optimal probability distribution model was established. The precipitation thresholds (Define R as the precipitation thresholds) for each level of drought for summer maize were then quantified based on the precipitation probability quantile method, and the rationality of the index was verified. The results were as follows: (1) The stage of tassel appearance-maturity was the critical period for water during summer maize growth. (2) There was a significant difference in the optimal probability distribution model at the 66 typical sites in the precipitation sequence during the critical period of water during summer maize growth. (3) In this paper, we identified a rapid and effective method for assessing agricultural drought in summer maize, which is based on the precipitation thresholds and dividing the different levels of drought. The precipitation thresholds of a drought disaster for summer maize at the 66 sites varied greatly from region to region. By using the Thiessen polygon method, the precipitation thresholds of a drought disaster during the critical water period during summer maize growth in the Huaihe River Basin were mild drought: 139 ≤ R < 169 mm, moderate drought: 108 ≤ R <139 mm, severe drought: 81 ≤ R < 108 mm, and extreme drought: R < 81 mm.