Precipitation of the warmest quarter and temperature of the warmest month are key to understanding the effect of climate change on plant species diversity in Southern African savannah

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, we test for the key bioclimatic variables that significantly explain the current distribution of plant species richness in a southern African ecosystem as a preamble to predicting plant species richness under a changed climate. We used 54,000 records of georeferenced plant species data to calculate species richness and spatially interpolated climate data to derive nineteen bioclimatic variables. Next, we determined the key bioclimatic variables explaining variation in species richness across Zimbabwe using regression analysis. Our results show that two bioclimatic variables, that is, precipitation of the warmest quarter (R2 = 0.92, P < 0.001) and temperature of the warmest month (R2 = 0.67, P < 0.001) significantly explain variation in plant species richness. In addition, results of bioclimatic modelling using future climate change projections show a reduction in the current bio‐climatically suitable area that supports high plant species richness. However, in high‐altitude areas, plant richness is less sensitive to climate change while low‐altitude areas show high sensitivity. Our results have important implications to biodiversity conservation in areas sensitive to climate change; for example, high‐altitude areas are likely to continue being biodiversity hotspots, as such future conservation efforts should be concentrated in these areas.