Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change.

Paul A. O’Gorman

doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3

Paul A. O’Gorman

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3

Copy DOI

Abstract

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to better constrain the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to warming.

Highlights

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change has been the subject of extensiveThis article is part of the Topical Collection on Extreme Events study because of the potential impacts on human society and ecosystems [30]
Mesoscale convective organization is important for the dynamics of precipitation extremes in the tropics but it is not resolved in global models, while at the same time, there are relatively few observational records of tropical precipitation extremes for estimating long-term trends and sensitivities
As demonstrated in several observational studies, there has been an overall intensification of daily precipitation extremes as a result of global warming, the available data has limited geographic coverage, and there are large regional variations in the observed trends

Summary

Introduction

The response of precipitation extremes (heavy precipitation events) to climate change has been the subject of extensiveThis article is part of the Topical Collection on Extreme Events study because of the potential impacts on human society and ecosystems [30]. Mesoscale convective organization is important for the dynamics of precipitation extremes in the tropics (and seasonally in the midlatitudes) but it is not resolved in global models, while at the same time, there are relatively few observational records of tropical precipitation extremes for estimating long-term trends and sensitivities.

Results

Conclusion