Precipitation and Soil Moisture Variation over the Tibetan Plateau to the Anomaly of Indian Summer Monsoon from 1979 to 2019

Abstract

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) can profoundly influence the summer precipitation patterns of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and indirectly affect the TP’s soil humidity. This study investigates the responses of TP’s precipitation and soil moisture to the ISM in the monsoon season (June to September, JJAS) from 1979 to 2019. Precipitation in the TP and the ISM intensity generally exhibit a positive correlation in the west and a negative correlation in the east. The response of TP soil moisture to the ISM generally aligns with precipitation patterns, albeit with noted inconsistencies in certain TP regions. A region exhibiting these inconsistencies (30°–32°N, 80°–90°E) is selected as the study area, hereafter referred to as IRR. In periods of strong ISM, precipitation in IRR increases, yet soil moisture decreases. Conversely, in years with a weak ISM, the pattern is reversed. During strong ISM years, the rainfall increase in IRR is modest, and the soil remains drier compared to other TP regions. Under the combined effects of a marginal increase in precipitation and relatively rapid evaporation, soil moisture in the IRR decreased during years of strong ISM. During weak ISM years, the surface temperature in the IRR is higher compared to strong ISM years, potentially accelerating the melting of surface permafrost and snow in this region. Additionally, glacier meltwater, resulting from warmer temperatures in the northwest edge of the TP, may also result in the humidification of the soil in the IRR.