Precipitation and hydrological extremes during the warm season in response to climate change: the example from the Polish Carpathians

Abstract

This study assesses the long-term variability of extreme precipitation events in the Carpathian region of Poland in relation to climate change and its potential impact on river regime. Focusing on eight catchments with undisturbed runoff regimes, the research utilized daily data from May to October between 1951 and 2022. This data included precipitation totals from 23 gauging stations, discharge values from eight water level gauging stations, and gridded precipitation data from the E-OBS dataset. Additionally, future projections for 2026–2060 under two RCP scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) were generated using five GCM-RCM model combinations from the EURO-CORDEX simulations. The study explored the relationship between precipitation and discharge, using probability techniques to identify extreme events. This study highlights the strong linkages between extreme precipitation and discharge in the region, indicating an elevated flood risk due to increased precipitation variability and volume. Despite no significant trends in the frequency of precipitation extremes being observed in the historical analysis, an increase in seasonal precipitation totals is projected, although with considerable uncertainty.