Abstract
In this article, we have developed a game theory based prediction tool, named Preana, based on a promising model developed by Professor Bruce Beuno de Mesquita. The first part of this work is dedicated to exploration of the specifics of Mesquita’s algorithm and reproduction of the factors and features that have not been revealed in literature. In addition, we have developed a learning mechanism to model the players’ reasoning ability when it comes to taking risks. Preana can predict the outcome of any issue with multiple steak-holders who have conflicting interests in economic, business, and political sciences. We have utilized game theory, expected utility theory, Median voter theory, probability distribution and reinforcement learning. We were able to reproduce Mesquita’s reported results and have included two case studies from his publications and compared his results to that of Preana. We have also applied Preana on Irans 2013 presidential election to verify the accuracy of the prediction made by Preana.
Highlights
Seeing the future has always been of great interest for human kind
Being able to foretell the future in economic, education, healthcare and especially politics is essential to know what happens ahead of time and prepare for it, and to find the pressure points
For each case study, we only show the change in the position of each player and the median voter position over time
Summary
Seeing the future has always been of great interest for human kind. Predicting the future has migrated from inside the crystal balls or between the lines of palms to very accurate scientific models. They have predicted the confrontations of the players within a quadrant and claimed that the accuracy of this algorithm within a quadrant is one hundred percent They have discussed that they have assumed the probability of status quo to be constant and equal to 1 and could not reproduce any of Bruce Beuno de Mesquita’s results other than the one introduced in the paper [3]. Another example is a research that applied the algorithm on Taiwan’s political status and made a prediction.
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