Abstract
The pre‒monsoon thermal field over the Indian landmass has an important bearing on the land–sea heating contrast in the region, consequently influencing the establishment, advance and overall performance of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. This paper examines the relationship between the pre‒monsoon thermal field over India and the following summer monsoon rainfall, in order to identify possible predictors for long‒range forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Based on the spatial patterns of correlations of monsoon rainfall with maximum and minimum temperatures at 121 stations well distributed over India, during the recent period 1951–80, two predictors showing a significant contribution to the variance in monsoon rainfall have been identified. They are (i) March minimum temperature in east peninsular India and (ii) May minimum temperature in west central India. These two predictors have performed very well in terms of their significant contribution to the multiple regression models during 1951–1987, vis‒á‒vis several other known predictors. They have also shown a consistently significant relationship with the monsoon rainfall during the recent period, from the mid‒1940s till the end of the data period. A stepwise regression model for long‒range forecasting of all‒India summer monsoon rainfall, involving three regional predictors, has been developed, and has shown a multiple correlation of 0·89. © 1997 The Royal Meteorological Society.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.